tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-41643406190863965222024-02-07T08:57:22.854-08:00Fale Elliotta i nie tylko...Kapitalizm libertariański oparty na własności prywatnej to jedyny system kompatybilny z naturą człowieka.
Aktualny stan rzeczy faworyzuje najniższe i najbardziej perwersyjne skłonności ludzkie.
H.de Sotopawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-83939222158247184162011-11-29T10:58:00.021-08:002023-11-12T06:26:52.215-08:00Sentyment<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Wykresy poniższe przedstawiają ciekawsze indeksy nastrojów. Obrazki są aktualizowane automatycznie.</div><div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>
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<a href="https://qnews.pl/barometry-qnewspl">qnews.pl</a> barometr quercus</div>
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.bankier.pl/inwestowanie/notowania/macro/profil.html?id=207">www.bankier.pl podaż M3 w Polsce</a></div>
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<a href="http://www.makrosfera.net/lista.aspx">http://www.makrosfera.net</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.indexindicators.com/">https://www.indexindicators.com/</a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow">https://www.frbatlanta.org/</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/images/cqer/research/gdpnow/gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif?h=500&w=650&la=en" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="650" height="246" src="https://www.atlantafed.org/-/media/images/cqer/research/gdpnow/gdpnow-forecast-evolution.gif?h=500&w=650&la=en" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/">http://www.equityclock.com/seasonality/</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.equityclock.com/Major-Indices-Seasonal-Timeline.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="225" data-original-width="660" height="109" src="http://www.equityclock.com/Major-Indices-Seasonal-Timeline.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">NYSE McClellan sumation index</div><a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120">https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83733137120</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">VIX:VIXMT</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX%3A%24VXMT&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p63954612907">https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX%3A%24VXMT&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p63954612907</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://en.macromicro.me/charts/449/us-cboe-options-put-call-ratio">https://en.macromicro.me/charts/449/us-cboe-options-put-call-ratio</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://bossafx.pl/narzedzia/sentyment-rynku">https://bossafx.pl/narzedzia/sentyment-rynku</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/NQ*0">https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/interactive-charts/NQ*0</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://rankia.pl/brokerzy/darmowe-i-uzyteczne-narzedzia-dla-inwestorow-i-traderow/">https://rankia.pl/brokerzy/darmowe-i-uzyteczne-narzedzia-dla-inwestorow-i-traderow/</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.morningstar.com/market-fair-value">https://www.morningstar.com/market-fair-value</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php">https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.marketpsych.com/">https://www.marketpsych.com/</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.isabelnet.com/blog/">https://www.isabelnet.com/blog/</a><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><a href="https://www.dailychartbook.com/">https://www.dailychartbook.com/</a><br /></div></div>
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pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-20546766176761770852011-03-05T02:42:00.001-08:002012-10-16T10:12:23.380-07:00Szwecja - parę krytycznych uwagSzwecja jest często pozytywnym przykładem dla zwolenników dużej roli państwa w gospodarce, wysokich podatków (i wydatków socjalnych). W wielu rankingach kraj ten jest na wysokich pozycjach (podobnie jak inne państwa nordyckie).<br />
Poniżej kilka uwag i wykresów pokazujących, że nie wszystko jest tak różowe.<br />
<b>Wzrost PKB</b><br />
Szwecja najszybciej rozwijała się w latach 1870-1950 (W roku 1950 wydatki rządowe stanowiły ok 20% PKB i były mniejsze niż w US). Później tempo wzrostu gosp. zaczeło spadać. O latach 70-tych i 80-ch mówi się jako o okresie stagnacji, który zakończył się bańką na rynku nieruchomości i kryzysem finansowym. Kilkakrotnie zdewaluowano walutę w latach 80-tych i 90-tych <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monetary_policy_of_Sweden#History">(link)</a>.<br />
Sposób wyjścia z kryzysu jest chwalony przez wielu ekonomistów. W odróżnieniu od obecnej tendencji ratowania banków za wszelką cenę, szwedzi rozłożyli straty także na obligatoriuszy banków. <br />
Od tamtej pory podjęto szereg reform, m.in. znacząco zostały obniżone podatki z 70%PKB do 50%PKB.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh45MSeMo24VDNzPdj8ialj3PwZnY0BaSvJbfPScb_B0Qug2DFxsTYDn3gcd6KFYxoCUr7pu9PaIIXycFXqzEgiwQMhh8Yl02YJtNA16YMZ-RMhUILubH4RkIwpHtvUMnKUaXTlcN0aQpla/s400/taxes.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh45MSeMo24VDNzPdj8ialj3PwZnY0BaSvJbfPScb_B0Qug2DFxsTYDn3gcd6KFYxoCUr7pu9PaIIXycFXqzEgiwQMhh8Yl02YJtNA16YMZ-RMhUILubH4RkIwpHtvUMnKUaXTlcN0aQpla/s320/taxes.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Poniżej wykres pokazujący spadające tempo wzrostu w stosunku do państw OECD do 1995 r.<br />
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<a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart1.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart1.gif" /></a></div>
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Od 2 kadencji nie rządzi już partia socjalistyczna i obciążenia podatkowe są nadal obniżane.<br />
System socjalny jest nadal bardzo szczodry, choć np. masowe wykorzystywanie zwolnień lekarskich spowodowało reformę tego systemu.<br />
Aby utrzymać ten rozbudowany i kosztowny system, w gospodarce panują bardzo wolnorynkowe zasady.<br />
Kraje nordyckie są na szczycie w rankingach wolności gospodarczej. W Szwecji nie ma nawet płacy minimalnej.<br />
<b>Bezrobocie</b><br />
<br />
Teoretycznie bezrobocie jest dość niskie w ok. 5%,a wskaźnik zatrudnienia wysoki ok.70%. Wiele osób kwestionuje te dane.<br />
Poniżej wykres pokazujący, że w sektorze prywatnym od 50 lat nie powstają netto nowe miejsca pracy. Większość nowych miejsc pracy powstawała w administracji publicznej. W ten sposób ukrywa się bezrobocie.<br />
Efektem tego jest bardzo wysokie bezrobocie wśród młodzieży - dochodzi do 29% (podobnie jest w Finlandii). Bezrobocie wśród imigrantów wynosi 50%.<br />
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<a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart2.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart2.gif" /></a></div>
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Wydajność takiego napompowanego sektora rządowego jest b.niska.<br />
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<a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart3.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/photos/uncategorized/20060908_economist_sweden_chart3.gif" /></a></div>
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Update 11.06.11<br />
Aby obraz Szwecji był kompletny dołożyłem wykres szwedzkiej korony względem euro. Podejrzewałem osłabienie szwedzkiej waluty, ale utrata 2/3 wartości mnie zaszokowała.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5VTrEma-dc2wULGDEToFI7nNhH4puJeQg9C59MQfeBgXWNPxg5YBIoO5kN_aV0r386wixGaHth-bq70BcTylnWM_mAwpNGZz3hb7DfcReeCTrVwJp2pZ9MpDNOmob_nVGXfU10YqP5qM/s1600/sekeur.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5VTrEma-dc2wULGDEToFI7nNhH4puJeQg9C59MQfeBgXWNPxg5YBIoO5kN_aV0r386wixGaHth-bq70BcTylnWM_mAwpNGZz3hb7DfcReeCTrVwJp2pZ9MpDNOmob_nVGXfU10YqP5qM/s320/sekeur.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
Jeszce gorzej wygląda to względem franka szwajcarskiego. 85% spadku wartości !.<br />
<a href="http://stooq.com/q/?s=sekchf">http://stooq.com/q/?s=sekchf</a><br />
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Poniżej linki do ciekawych artykułów dot. Szwecji.<br />
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<a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2006/09/more_sweden.html">http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2006/09/more_sweden.html</a><br />
<a href="http://mkqpreview1.qdweb.net/Transportation/Strategy_Analysis/Swedens_growth_paradox_1807">http://mkqpreview1.qdweb.net/Transportation/Strategy_Analysis/Swedens_growth_paradox_1807</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-160.html">http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-160.html</a><a href="http://neweconomist.blogs.com/new_economist/2006/09/more_sweden.html"></a><br />
<a href="http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2000/06/pension-reform-in-sweden-lessons-for-american-policymakers">http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2000/06/pension-reform-in-sweden-lessons-for-american-policymakers</a><br />
<a href="http://mises.org/daily/4936">http://mises.org/daily/4936</a> Stagnating Socialist Sweden<br />
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<a href="http://www.mises.org/daily/2259">http://www.mises.org/daily/2259</a> The Sweden Myth by Stefan Karlsson<br />
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<a href="http://mises.pl/blog/2011/01/29/shenoy-czy-wysokie-podatki-sa-zrodlem-wolnosci-i-dobrobytu/">http://mises.pl/blog/2011/01/29/shenoy-czy-wysokie-podatki-sa-zrodlem-wolnosci-i-dobrobytu/</a><br />
<a href="http://mises.pl/blog/2010/10/02/chrupczalski-nowe-oblicze-szwecji/">http://mises.pl/blog/2010/10/02/chrupczalski-nowe-oblicze-szwecji/</a><br />
<a href="http://mises.pl/blog/2010/06/01/bergstrom-mit-skandynawskiego-dobrobytu/">http://mises.pl/blog/2010/06/01/bergstrom-mit-skandynawskiego-dobrobytu/</a><br />
<a href="http://mikro.univ.szczecin.pl/bp/pdf/64/23.pdf">http://mikro.univ.szczecin.pl/bp/pdf/64/23.pdf</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2010/03/super-economy-in-one-picture.html">http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2010/03/super-economy-in-one-picture.html</a><br />
<a href="http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2012/09/secret-sauce-of-scandinavian-sucess.html">http://super-economy.blogspot.com/2012/09/secret-sauce-of-scandinavian-sucess.html</a><br />
<a href="http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/schon.sweden">http://eh.net/encyclopedia/article/schon.sweden</a><br />
<br />pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-4155425254669997102011-02-01T09:54:00.000-08:002011-02-11T11:47:13.457-08:00WIG - kiedy kupować(2) ?<div align="left"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div>Ciekawy wykres od Bespoke:<br />
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<a href="http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/who-needs-the-trading-day.html">www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/1/26/who-needs-the-trading-day.html</a><br />
Gdyby przez ostatnie 20 lat kupować S&P na otwarciu i sprzedawać na zamknięciu to inwestor poniósłby stratę -38%. Natomiast trzymając akcje przez "noc" można było zarobić 380%. Kolosalna różnica.<br />
Zainspirowany wykresem sprawdziłem jak zachowuje się WIG. Okazuje się, że także u nas są spore różnice w inwestowaniu w ciągu "dnia", a inwestowaniem "w nocy".<br />
Na wykresie oprócz WIGu jest wykres potencjalnych inwestycji w 2 strategie:<br />
- kupowanie na otwarciu i sprzedawanie na zamknięciu (Close-Open)<br />
- kupowanie na zamknięciu(dzień wcześniej) i sprzedawanie na otwarciu (Open-Close(-1))<br />
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W górnej części wykresu "różnica" między tymi strategiami.<br />
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Co ciekawe w okresie 2001-2006 lepsze wyniki dawało inwestowanie "w dzień" a w latach 2006-2010 "w nocy".<br />
Wyraźnie to widać na wykresie "Różnicy" między strategiami.<br />
Praktycznie bez strat można było przetrwać bessę 07-09 inwestując na "noc".<br />
Wniosek dla day-traderów w ciągu dnia grać na spadki, a na noc raczej zostawiać długie.<br />
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Poprzedni podobny wpis: <a href="http://pawel-l.blogspot.com/2010/04/wig-kiedy-kupowac.html">http://pawel-l.blogspot.com/2010/04/wig-kiedy-kupowac.html</a>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-64837276966861171162010-11-14T07:34:00.001-08:002010-11-15T09:02:52.555-08:00Patternz-sygnały rynkoweNa stronie <a href="http://thepatternsite.com/CPIUpdate.html">http://thepatternsite.com/CPIUpdate.html</a> można obserwować wykres S&P wraz z sygnałami generowanymi przez program "Patternz". System wyszukuje formacje i oblicza procentowy stosunek byczych i niedźwiedzich wzorów.<br />
Właśnie niedawno wygenerował sygnał sprzedaży na S&P.<br />
Program jest dostępny do własnych analiz i poniżej sygnały rynkowe dla naszego podwórka.<br />
Sygnały są niejednoznaczne. Sprzedaż na CAC40 FTSE i WIG-banki. Na pozostałych rynkach sygnał wszedł w strefę neutralną, .Kupno Usd_pln.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://picasaweb.google.com/105273818733573411887/FaleElliottaINieTylko?authkey=Gv1sRgCNr-0tXIxv_SDA#5539423607641937538" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhcZdLkxF-gOT1NhkZ3Nez6UvXTOpUdUtdQfQD2M8E4xC1GE5zxHmExhbJinz329ozf4ihT1DmrXAYu3FndCGLEhJx9ovtFik26oM3dA7ZGSMQRrQfMdHu3xpD5ge9LdVg7SGw1gVVYZqI/s640/patternz-wig+sh+10-11-14.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-85528408893208279172009-10-31T23:55:00.000-07:002010-09-23T09:54:33.208-07:00WstępMój blog jest trochę nietypowy bo nie zamierzam komentować bieżących wydarzeń, natomiast uzupełniam i porządkuję swoją wiedzę, doświadczenie i zasoby poprzez umieszczanie informacji na stronie. Zwłaszcza dla inwestorów długoterminowych mogą to być przydatne rzeczy. Ciągle ulepszam i dokładam do istniejących wpisów więc warto wracać do przeczytanych wątków.<br />
Interesuję się giełdą od ~20 lat raczej amatorsko, ale dla nieprofesjonalnych inwestorów to może być ciekawe. <br />
Ciekawią mnie zwłaszcza globalne trendy gospodarcze, psychologia rynków finansowych, a Teoria Fall Elliotta to mnie po prostu fascynuje.<br />
Na świat patrzę z punktu widzenia austriackiej szkoły ekonomii i libertarianizmu.<br />
Zapraszam do lektury...pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-31551981367370866522009-10-31T07:00:00.000-07:002010-02-27T23:56:46.072-08:00Fale Elliotta - wstępPostęp społeczny odbywa się w sposób falowy - po każdej fali postępu występuje fala korekty. Postęp nieodzownie związany jest z nastrojami społeczeństwa. Jeśli nastrój jest optymistyczny to ludzie inwestują, oszczędzają, jeśli jest pesymizm to zamykają się w swoich domach (krajach), wymiana handlowa się zmniejsza, inwestycje zamierają.<br />
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<div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Okazuje się że indeksy giełdowe takie jak Dow są dobrym miernikiem nastrojów społecznych a co z tym związane stanu gospodarki. Jeśli nastroje się psują to jest to najpierw widoczne w postaci spadków na giełdzie. Po pewnym czasie okazuje się że zmniejsza się aktywność gospodarcza. Dopiero wtedy pojawiają się informacje gosp. o spowolnieniu i komentarze ekonomistów.Okazuje się że trendy giełdowe mają swoją dynamikę i pewne zasady które pozwalają na określenie gdzie jesteśmy i gdzie zmierza giełda.Wzrosty mają strukturę 5 fal 1-2-3-4-5 (wzrost, spadek, wzrost, spadek, wzrost) a korekty 3 fal A-B-C (spadek, wzrost, spadek) choć potrafią być bardzo złożone.</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_1Bbddv5C5RFg4vwlPkVsmGuLbN7RAvPigIsF0z9erjXvJUKfPgkFQdrX56Ffs-X1ULKtQSPd2t-sZB06SOpORUl4fbBr3jqvzFIXEJwonuy7RAmfqb89TlThPwV1A495UUV2O7P7yE/s1600-h/TFE-schemat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; cssfloat: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis_1Bbddv5C5RFg4vwlPkVsmGuLbN7RAvPigIsF0z9erjXvJUKfPgkFQdrX56Ffs-X1ULKtQSPd2t-sZB06SOpORUl4fbBr3jqvzFIXEJwonuy7RAmfqb89TlThPwV1A495UUV2O7P7yE/s320/TFE-schemat.jpg" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
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</div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Każdy mniejszy wzrost składa się też z 5 fal mniejszego stopnia a jednocześnie jest fragmentem większej całości (coś jak fraktale). Jest sporo wskazówek mówiących o proporcjach pomiędzy falami i czasach ich trwania. </div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3lOnMlxWdsEb3wihA2eTwqyBVK7aBM4mQzrfmVZNQ62BNu0POLblFPIx2s8_gdNu0WMJlXW56zoz7t3bstruoEUI5JubFGKgmz63ByCdHoygg8PHAViBHKTF-Oa-ZzxVbhDeXnphJVGU/s1600-h/TFE-model.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3lOnMlxWdsEb3wihA2eTwqyBVK7aBM4mQzrfmVZNQ62BNu0POLblFPIx2s8_gdNu0WMJlXW56zoz7t3bstruoEUI5JubFGKgmz63ByCdHoygg8PHAViBHKTF-Oa-ZzxVbhDeXnphJVGU/s320/TFE-model.jpg" /></a></div><div style="border-bottom: medium none; border-left: medium none; border-right: medium none; border-top: medium none;">Oczywiście nie można przewidzieć w 100% zachowania rynku, ale są pewne poziomy cenowe czy daty które można założyć i jeśli rynek zatrzyma się na takim poziomie to możemy być pewni że trend się teraz zmieni. Jeśli nie to znajdujemy kolejny prawdopodobny poziom.</div>Na początku lat 80-tych (w czasach dużego pesymizmu) teoretycy Fal Elliotta zapowiadali wielką hossę po której przyjdzie wielka bessa. <br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggjdMgvLIb7qPrn_lo46NQNcI3O-xewSZmsDzxFsWyXlrlbx0xpUzkONMYmUlqub2tV-rXk_XRA_fZ19Z6P9n8lQlhXCBLaIdfJ432K2fYfH0Z87unzEA2jl0GgdkWQyM9v52CHa6TBn8/s1600-h/TFE-prognoza+82.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggjdMgvLIb7qPrn_lo46NQNcI3O-xewSZmsDzxFsWyXlrlbx0xpUzkONMYmUlqub2tV-rXk_XRA_fZ19Z6P9n8lQlhXCBLaIdfJ432K2fYfH0Z87unzEA2jl0GgdkWQyM9v52CHa6TBn8/s320/TFE-prognoza+82.jpg" /></a></div>Pierwsza część prognozy się sprawdziła druga cześć się właśnie materializuje. A fundamenty ? Wiadomości są wtórne. Te same wiadomości mogą być zupełnie inaczej odbierane zależnie od nastrojów na rynku.<br />
Większość inwestorów z namaszczeniem słucha wiadomości zastanawiając się jaki będzie wpływ na indeksy giełdowe czy ceny surowców. A w praktyce dziennikarze dobierają argumenty do stanu rynku. Wzrosło - to dzięki dobrym wiadomościom. Spadło - to cytujemy złe info. Tymczasem nawet znając fakty wcześniej w większości przypadków nie jesteśmy w stanie przewidzieć efektu. To co najtrudniej zaakceptować w tej teorii to sugestia, że wydarzenia nie wpływają na nastrój społeczny (social mood), tylko odwrotnie. Oznaczenie fal za ostatnie 1000 lat wg EWI:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsxvdRtwayfrA93jnQ3ftUcOG4guLBW7PhpLJeBbuyvFdz45QiCOIMQOu_3238L9Q60kOuHjMxITKZTicObyrMYCyJhL_d3oEvFI_Uu5s17ApafOBiKFstknO7mNrH0mGoZIIuv7YAiuc/s1600-h/TFE-1000.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsxvdRtwayfrA93jnQ3ftUcOG4guLBW7PhpLJeBbuyvFdz45QiCOIMQOu_3238L9Q60kOuHjMxITKZTicObyrMYCyJhL_d3oEvFI_Uu5s17ApafOBiKFstknO7mNrH0mGoZIIuv7YAiuc/s320/TFE-1000.jpg" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Od 1800r z uwzględnieniem inflacji</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT6hQYb2BuszzJ5pBrxHZ-LN1deX9hFQnxesUQlmcSycFKGPGdIgLw1h2_4Gjv6lvNkPSCGLP1utNDZnnxSFmDnkIR6o6WB7DpGp8mQCYP8rzTtg91f46BqHNIIKlem0qF9pxmYBXG6Ts/s1600-h/TFE-1800.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" kt="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiT6hQYb2BuszzJ5pBrxHZ-LN1deX9hFQnxesUQlmcSycFKGPGdIgLw1h2_4Gjv6lvNkPSCGLP1utNDZnnxSFmDnkIR6o6WB7DpGp8mQCYP8rzTtg91f46BqHNIIKlem0qF9pxmYBXG6Ts/s320/TFE-1800.jpg" /></a></div><div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Od 1700r z prognozą na przyszłość</div><div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://images41.fotosik.pl/176/33faf9d864ed5121.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="317" src="http://images41.fotosik.pl/176/33faf9d864ed5121.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><br />
A np. tu można zobaczyć próby prognozowania krótkoterminowego<br />
<a href="http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/">ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com</a><br />
<br />
Trudno np. znaleźć wojny czy inne dramatyczne wydarzenia na wykresie Dowa. Największe spadki w 30, 74, 87r nie były związane bezpośrednio z niczym dramat. Po 11.09.01 spadki trwały raptem tydzień i były kontynuacją wcześniejszych spadków. Wojny są związane z trzecią falą korekt wysokiego stopnia (fala C). Wtedy nastroje społeczne są tak podłe że o wojnę bardzo łatwo. Tutaj wykres z największymi wojnami w historii US. Opierając się o tę teorię można określić prawdopodobieństwo dużego konfliktu w przyszłości.<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://images48.fotosik.pl/143/e814f2724bc7517a.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="258" kt="true" src="http://images48.fotosik.pl/143/e814f2724bc7517a.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><a href="http://pawel-l.fotosik.pl/zdjecia/1.html">http://pawel-l.fotosik.pl/zdjecia/1.html</a><br />
-------------------<br />
<br />
W Stanach mieliśmy do czynienia z ogromnym spekulacyjnym wzrostem na rynku akcji. Ten wzrost jak uczy historia podobnych manii skończy się poniżej miejsca gdzie zaczynał w 1982r. Akcje będą spadały przez kilkanaście lat i zależnie od postępowania rządzących może być dłuższa i głębsza. (Czym więcej rządu tym gorzej). Gdyby rządzący powiedzieli: słuchajcie narobiliśmy bigosu, musimy zmniejszyć wydatki rządowe, zwiększyć inwestycje w tradycyjne przemysły (zmniejszając podatki) , ograniczyć zadłużenie to korekta mogłaby się skończyć się szybciej. Ale ekipa brnie dalej: drukuje zielone papierki, zwiększa zadłużenie, zachęca do konsumpcji. Więc kłopoty przeciągną się w czasie, i będą głębsze. Co nie wyklucza że uda się na krótko ożywić gospodarkę i wygrać kolejnych wyborów.pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-50769390556287388112009-10-30T07:49:00.000-07:002010-09-25T07:06:23.055-07:00Fale Elliotta - źródłaWszystko co najlepsze w ostatnich latach napisał R.Prechter <br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/Investor_eBook.pdf">elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/Investor_eBook.pdf</a> <br />
New chapters include (43 pages): <br />
<br />
What's The Best Investment During Recessions? <br />
Why Buy and Hold Doesn't Work Now <br />
Looking Ahead in the Economic and Investment Cycle <br />
Be One of the Few the Government Hasn't Fooled <br />
The Bear Market and Depression: How Close to the Bottom? <br />
How Gold, Silver and T-Bonds Will Behave in a Bear Market <br />
Original chapters remain (75 pages): <br />
<br />
What Really Moves the Markets? <br />
Remember the Enron Scandal? <br />
The Myth of the "New Economy" Exposed <br />
The Biggest Threat to the "Economic Recovery" <br />
The "Efficient Market Hypothesis"<br />
<br />
Spore fragmenty książek z google books <br />
<br />
<a href="http://books.google.pl/books?id=MwPfscfeL8gC&dq=elliott+wave&printsec=frontcover&source=bl&ots=YvjyTP6Hh8&sig=LoRVlOI21VNBB_YAsO1CaqJwjkg&hl=pl&ei=F-ijSoeHMMevsAa65JHSBA&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7#v=onepage&q=elliott%20wave&f=false">Conquer the crash</a> <br />
<a href="http://books.google.pl/books?id=GJfxRbJQnyMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=elliott+wave&source=gbs_similarbooks_s&cad=1#v=onepage&q=elliott%20wave&f=false">View from the Top of the Grand Supercycle </a><br />
<a href="http://books.google.pl/books?id=eBdHCIttnjMC&printsec=frontcover&dq=related:ISBN0471979546#v=onepage&q=&f=false">Beautiful Pictures from the Gallery of Phinance</a> <br />
<a href="http://books.google.pl/books?id=lQ0OEmzM9tsC&printsec=frontcover&dq=related:ISBN0471979546#v=onepage&q=&f=false">Elliott wave principle: key to market behavior</a><a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/ereader/ewp/Default.aspx?page=1"></a><br />
<br />
oraz EWT z lipca <br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/free-theorist-july-2009.pdf">elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/free-theorist-july-2009.pdf</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.parkiet.com/artykul/832129.html">parkiet.com-wywiad</a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">Rządy i banki centralne ponoszą więcej winy za wywołanie kryzysu niż cała reszta uczestników rynku. To Kongres stworzył całą napędzającą kredyt machinę w postaci Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, Sallie Mae i Federalnych Banków Hipotecznych. Co więcej, rząd praktycznie zakazał konserwatywnej bankowości, tworząc Federalną Agencję Ubezpieczeń Depozytów. Teraz gigantyczne wydatki nic nie wnoszą do gospodarki, a wręcz są szkodliwe. Pogląd, że Waszyngton „walczy” z <br />
kryzysem, świadczy tylko o tym, iż rząd potrafi skutecznie zwodzić <br />
społeczeństwo.W bliskim terminie nie ma żadnego lekarstwa na kryzys. Jest na to za późno, bo niemożliwy do utrzymania poziom zadłużenia już zaistniał. W dalszej perspektywie jedyną alternatywą dla obecnego chaosu i destrukcji jest rezygnacja rządu z mieszania się w gospodarkę. Jednak nic takiego nie nastąpi, dopóki rząd nie zbankrutuje, a zanim to się będzie mogło stać, najpierw zbankrutować muszą obywatele.</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2009/0619.html">Q&A</a><br />
<br />
<span style="font-style: italic;">Should you prepare for a change in politics? <br />
<br />
Short Answer: YES <br />
<br />
Long Answer: At some point during a financial crisis, money flows typically become a political issue. You should keep a sharp eye on political trends in your home country. In severe economic times, governments have been known to ban foreign investment, demand capital repatriation, outlaw money transfers abroad, close banks, freeze bank accounts, restrict or seize private pensions, raise taxes, fix prices and impose currency exchange values. They have been known to use force to change the course of who gets hurt and who is spared, which means that the prudent are punished and the thriftless are rewarded, reversing the result from what it would be according to who deserves to be spared or get hurt. In extreme cases, such as when authoritarians assume power, they simply appropriate or take de facto control of your property. <br />
<br />
You cannot anticipate every possible law, regulation or political event that will be implemented to thwart your attempt at safety, liquidity and solvency. This is why you must plan ahead and pay attention. As you do, think about these issues so that when political forces troll for victims, you are legally outside the scope of the dragnet.</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/pdf/prechter-outlook-profit-interview.pdf">Outlook</a><br />
The job of the markets is to fool everyone.<br />
News and market opinions are 99 percent noise.<br />
When markets go up, the Fed seems to be in control; when they go down, it seems out of control.<br />
<br />
------<br />
Inne<br />
<a href="http://elliottwave.com/">http://elliottwave.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.robertprechter.com/">http://www.robertprechter.com/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299a.html">http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299a.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com/">ewtrendsandcharts.blogspot.com</a><br />
<a href="http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/">marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com</a><br />
<a href="http://www.yelnick.typepad.com/">yelnick.typepad.com</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.safehaven.com/archive-11.htm">safehaven.com/archive-11.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.safehaven.com/archive-249.htm">safehaven.com/archive-249.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.lemansa.wordpress.com/">lemansa.wordpress.com</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jasonf/default.aspx">http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/analyst-videos/jasonf/default.aspx</a><br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/ctc/resources/Default.aspx">http://www.elliottwave.com/club/protected/ctc/resources/Default.aspx</a><br />
<a href="http://www.futures-investor.co.uk/elliott_wave_principle.htm">http://www.futures-investor.co.uk/elliott_wave_principle.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm">http://www.market-harmonics.com/elliott_wave1.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.e-wavecharts.com/index.htm">http://www.e-wavecharts.com/index.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.elliottwavesignals.com/cotw/index.htm">http://www.elliottwavesignals.com/cotw/index.htm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.elliottician.com/overview.aspx">http://www.elliottician.com/overview.aspx</a><br />
<a href="http://forex-blog.eu/2009/02/19/fale-elliotta/">http://forex-blog.eu/2009/02/19/fale-elliotta/</a><br />
<a href="http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/main.cfm">http://www.fibonacciqueen.com/public/main.cfm</a><br />
<a href="http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2006/1007prechter.html">http://www.financialsense.com/transcriptions/2006/1007prechter.html</a><br />
<a href="http://www.iofilm.co.uk/io/mit/001/historys_hidden_engine_20060512.php">http://www.iofilm.co.uk/io/mit/001/historys_hidden_engine_20060512.php</a><br />
<a href="http://www.neowave.com/index.asp">http://www.neowave.com/index.asp</a><br />
<a href="http://www.forex-book.org/mastering-elliott-wave-byglenn-neely-free-download/"></a><br />
<a href="http://analiza-gieldowa.pl/materialy_edukacyjne/11/zalozenia_teorii_fal_elliotta_.html">http://analiza-gieldowa.pl/materialy_edukacyjne/11/zalozenia_teorii_fal_elliotta_.html</a><br />
<a href="http://analiza-gieldowa.pl/materialy_edukacyjne/11/zalozenia_teorii_fal_elliotta_.html">analiza-gieldowa.pl/materialy_edukacyjne/11/zalozenia_teorii_fal_elliotta</a><br />
<a href="http://www.eksportuj.pl/artykul/pokaz/id/2223">www.eksportuj.pl/artykul/pokaz/id/2223</a><br />
<a href="http://teoria-fal-elliotta.blogspot.com/">teoria-fal-elliotta.blogspot.com</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.forex-book.org/mastering-elliott-wave-byglenn-neely-free-download/">mastering-elliott-wave-byglenn-neely</a>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-8747296893508674082009-10-29T09:30:00.000-07:002010-02-28T00:14:16.711-08:00Fale Elliotta-przykłady<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://images41.fotosik.pl/139/bb0f5aa46a62052e.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" kt="true" src="http://images41.fotosik.pl/139/bb0f5aa46a62052e.jpg" width="305" /></a><a href="http://images48.fotosik.pl/143/2edcf2aa36d47a3dmed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="269" kt="true" src="http://images48.fotosik.pl/143/2edcf2aa36d47a3dmed.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><a href="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/supercycles.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/supercycles.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 400px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; width: 455px;" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/bear1.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/bear1.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 400px; margin: 0px 10px 10px 0px; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://images49.fotosik.pl/249/1ea9d9a778f4b394.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="http://images49.fotosik.pl/249/1ea9d9a778f4b394.jpg" width="221" /></a>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-11509774374561636012009-10-28T23:23:00.000-07:002010-05-17T10:54:16.853-07:00Fale Elliotta - InneLINKI obrazki EWT<br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/mw%2005-03-10.GIF" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/freeupdates/hs(1).jpg" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketreport/mw04-30-10.GIF" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/unnecessaryspending.GIF" /><br />
<img height="538" src="http://www.can-offshore.com/charts/DJIAweekly101308b.GIF" width="640" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/freeupdates/Image/sa.jpg" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/interestratesboj.GIF" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/msgboard/socialism.GIF" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/mw3-17-2010.JPG" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/msgboard/TsunamiCharts.gif" /><br />
<img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjrev1hmJ8DiRfciwmVsjw539hynWr6RgB0BCaWVj-rAQZCuD6dCubF2skeSKqZReXtGDyuZIwS1KRF5VcXblfyDqPZeg2RukBTYbLOMu5b7ratbuipm5M1VEas2SY5DjaEJkPTVwRZxEw/s1600-h/Money2.JPG" /><br />
EW od 1000r<br />
<img src="http://users.rcn.com/virtual.nai/sot/price.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://yelnick.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/fouryearcycle021706_1.jpg" /><br />
<br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/0803EWT_Fig_1.GIF" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/mw%2011-13-08.gif" /><br />
<br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.sociotimes.com/images/tower.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.can-offshore.com/charts/DJIAweekly101308b.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/charts/fedfollows.gif" /><br />
<br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/futuresfocus/20081208_nico01.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/futuresfocus/chart-20090126-nico.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/futuresfocus/DJIAmonthly101008.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/globalwrap/double.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/globalwrap/shanghai.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/0803EWT_Fig_1.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/Big%20parabola.jpg" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/buyhold.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/marketwatch/Fedfollows012208.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/futuresfocus/20080908_nico.gif" /><br />
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<img src="http://www.elliottwave.com/images/futuresfocus/long-termcommodities.gif" /><br />
January top-last 10 yers EW<br />
<img src="http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef01287702bb89970c-500wi" /><br />
Prechter long prognosis<br />
<img src="http://yelnick.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c563953ef0120a7e4dba5970b-320pi" /><br />
<img src="http://d1889369.u26.websitesource.net/images/elliott_wave.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://thebullandbear.com/bb_images/articles/0706-artGraph.jpg" /><br />
<img src="http://www.financialsense.com/Experts/ewave/2004/images/1005ht3.jpg" /><br />
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<img src="http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/images/2008/financial-crisis-sept08-1.jpg" />pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-51543878322672360422009-10-28T06:55:00.000-07:002010-02-20T01:04:13.390-08:00Cykl Bennera-FibonaciegoCykl Bennera-Fibonaciego jest trochę dziwnym cyklem. Między szczytami mamy 8, 9, 10 lat różnicy. Między mniejszymi dołkami 16, 18, 20 i podobnie między dużymi korektami (z dokładnością do 1 roku). Te zależności zauważył Brenner w 1875r !. Przypomniał je i zmodyfikował R.Prechter w swojej książce o falach Elliotta z lat 70-tych.<br />
Aktualna wersja poniżej. Ciągle doskonale się sprawdza.<br />
Może to związek z 11 letnią aktywnością słońca. Popularny cykl decenialny ma chyba też wiele wspólnego. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI2_fHEJoMcKctu7UAOakR6khf-0-R9V0yGuXIp08cr_1fsJi5tSJ-V6VuC0KJNP9mixESs76M4I4V037tw3DXy36Y_L1fRejNRlMrS2auRAGddkbMZi_9CSMi3O09p34_WKTgG5R8IBk/s1600-h/Benner-Fibonacci.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5393938579803017250" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhI2_fHEJoMcKctu7UAOakR6khf-0-R9V0yGuXIp08cr_1fsJi5tSJ-V6VuC0KJNP9mixESs76M4I4V037tw3DXy36Y_L1fRejNRlMrS2auRAGddkbMZi_9CSMi3O09p34_WKTgG5R8IBk/s320/Benner-Fibonacci.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 244px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
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Więcej:<br />
<a href="http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/brenfib.htm">THE BENNER CYCLE, FIBONACCI NUMBERS & THE NUMBER 56</a>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-89295931310447864722009-10-27T12:00:00.000-07:002010-04-18T09:21:10.186-07:00Cykl koniunkturalny<div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">Większość osób spotkała sie z pojęciem cyklu koniunkturalnego. Luźna polityka monetarna prowadzi do wzrostów cen obligacji i akcji. Następnie efekty widać w gospodarce, a na końcu pojawia się wzrost cen surowców i inflacja. Martin Pring w swoich publikacjach ładnie to pokazuje. Dzieli on pełny 4-5 letni cykl na 6 etapów. Poniżej kilka wykresów z jego publikacji.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://pring.com/articleindex.htm">http://pring.com/articleindex.htm</a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://pring.com/pdfs/imrsample.pdf">http://pring.com/pdfs/imrsample.pdf</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/SFTSAAPresentation.pdf">http://www.pringturner.com/newsletters/SFTSAAPresentation.pdf</a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-74171304751618352722009-10-26T03:00:00.000-07:002011-01-23T05:37:52.836-08:00Socjonomia wg PrechteraW 2003r Prechter opublikował prognozy dot. różnych aspektów życia społecznego. Warto przejrzeć tą listę i sprawdzić co już jest aktualne, a co nas jeszcze czeka.<br />
<br />
Positive mood/Negative mood <br />
adventurousness / protectionism <br />
alignment / opposition <br />
benevolence / malevolence <br />
clarity / fuzziness <br />
concord / discord <br />
confidence / fear <br />
constructiveness / destructiveness <br />
convergence / polarization <br />
daring / defensiveness <br />
desiring power over nature / over people <br />
ebullience / depression <br />
embrace of effort / avoidance of effort <br />
forbearance / anger <br />
friskiness / somberness <br />
happiness / unhappiness <br />
homogeneity / heterogeneity <br />
inclusion / exclusion <br />
interest in love / interest in sex <br />
liberality / restriction <br />
optimism / pessimism <br />
practical thinking / magical thinking <br />
search for joy / search for pleasure <br />
self providence / self deprivation <br />
sharpness of focus / dullness of focus <br />
supportiveness / opposition <br />
tendency to praise / tendency to criticize <br />
togetherness / separatism <br />
<br />
SOME SOCIONOMIC OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS <br />
Observations <br />
The downturn in social mood that began in the first quarter of 2000, as indicated by the trend in the <br />
major stock market averages, has produced a change in the character of social events, as predicted by the <br />
socionomic hypothesis. We can observe its workings in almost every field. Many of these social trends we <br />
predicted specifically, some generally. (Note: None of the observations or forecasts listed below is designed <br />
to attack anyone.s patriotism, politics, religion or culture. The social mood is intense, and some people may <br />
find it difficult to assume the role of impassionate observer. Please realize that no offense is intended. It pays <br />
to know what is going on, whether you like or dislike any of the downtrend.s manifestations.)<br />
<br />
.The stock market lost fifty percent of its value. <br />
.The economy contracted (officially) for eight months, and the recovery since then has been weak. <br />
.Many bonds have been downgraded. Few have been upgraded, even during the economic recovery <br />
.The federal government placed a tariff on steel imports. <br />
.Quasi-federal agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have gone from the peak of public <br />
.Corporate leaders have gone from heroes to goats. Scandals have bedeviled the corporate world. <br />
.The public image of the chairman of the Federal Reserve System has gone from someone who is <br />
.The president.s popularity has waned. Other incumbents have faced ousting. <br />
.Horror movies have increased both in number and in popularity. Torture has been depicted at least <br />
of the past year. <br />
<br />
respect to enduring public attack. <br />
infallible to someone who is at least fallible and at worst incompetent. <br />
half a dozen times on prime time television. <br />
<br />
.Baseball and basketball have waned in popularity, and football has waxed. Violent sports, such as ultimate fighting. and the like, are becoming popular. <br />
.Name-calling and staunch partisanship have become staples of political commentary. <br />
.The U.S. Treasury.s .budget surplus,. which economists had projected twenty years into the future, has turned into an accelerating deficit. <br />
.Jobs are moving out of the U.S. to China, India and elsewhere. <br />
.The United States was physically attacked for the first time in 60 years. <br />
.The United States has attacked and subdued another country. This act is an extension of the threats that the U.S. under President Clinton issued to seven countries (as chronicled in EWT and EWFF), which President Bush has continued. The attack was characterized as defensive, although the only enemy who had attacked the U.S. was Al Qaeda, an entirely different entity, revealing that the U.S. act was foremost an expression of social anger and fear, not a rational retaliation. <br />
.The occupation of Iraq has turned from an optimistic dream of exporting democracy into a quagmire. <br />
.Religions are fighting each other and becoming stauncher and more political. Radical Muslims are attacking U.S. and other Western (Christian and Jewish) interests, devout Christians (including President Bush) are leading the fight against Arab states, and Jews in Israel are battling radical Muslims. Christians are rallying to impose their religion upon the American state, lobbying for federal tax money to be given to <br />
Christian social groups, asserting that U.S. law is based upon the Ten Commandments (which is demonstrably false), and characterizing the Founding Fathers . Unitarians and Deists almost to a man . as Protestant Christians. A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll reported on September 30 shows 2/3 of the public in favor of using public property to display the Ten Commandments and against using public property to display the <br />
Koran. A similar partisan majority would surely object to state-funded and sanctioned expressions of Judaism, Catholicism, Hinduism, atheism, Scientology, New Age beliefs, etc. <br />
.The founding principles of the United States have been relentlessly destroyed primarily by the left for decades. Now (by the guideline of alternation) the right is leading the onslaught, not only as cited above but also with such freedom-curtailing legislation as the Patriot Act. <br />
<br />
Unfortunately, we have few optimistic predictions for the bear market. It is the opposite situation from 1982, when EWT forecast a soaring stock market, a booming economy and .no international war for at least ten years.. The big wave V bull market then due called for positive socionomic results. Today.s bear-market Here is the list of mood opposites presented in Chapter 14 of The Wave Principle of Human Social <br />
Behavior. Generally, all kinds of social units will trend toward the style of behavior on the .negative mood. <br />
<br />
The simplest forecast to make is that social mood and its expressions will escalate substantially toward <br />
the right-hand descriptions in the above list. We can also attempt some specific forecasts. Those below are <br />
presented in no particular order beyond their general categories. They are based upon the conjecture that <br />
social mood is about to accelerate toward the negative within a Grand Supercycle degree decline. All of <br />
these forecasts should be fulfilled probably within a dozen years (by the end of wave (a)) but at least within <br />
60 years (by the end of wave (c)). <br />
Finance <br />
.Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will drop more than 90 percent. <br />
.Real estate values will fall more than they did in the 1930s and 1940s. <br />
.Rating services will resume the trend of downgrading bond quality. Eventually, states, counties, cities, corporations and even nations will default on bonds in record amounts. <br />
.Debt packages made of mortgage-backed bonds, auto loans and credit card debt will become viewed as unworthy investments. <br />
.Many, if not most, pension plans will fall in value and be unable to provide the promised benefits. <br />
Anger over this development will result in demonstrations, violence and tardy and ineffective political reform. <br />
.Prices for collectibles will continue to fall. Many will become little more than curios. <br />
.More banks will fail than failed in the 1930s. <br />
.The total amount of credit outstanding worldwide will decline substantially. <br />
.The Federal Reserve chairman will be labeled a fool who is greatly responsible for the collapse. <br />
.The dollar will lose its place as the world.s reserve currency. Either gold, a currency backed by gold (such as the Islamic dinar), or the Chinese yuan will take its place. <br />
.The Federal Reserve System will be discredited and then abolished. <br />
.The rich. will be vilified, and their property will be increasingly taxed and seized. <br />
.Regulatory and legislative reforms will limit, curtail or ban a number of structures facilitating speculation, such as options, futures, margin lending, hedge funds, mutual funds, IRAs and 401Ks. <br />
.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will shut down. <br />
.Financial news networks will change formats or go off the air. <br />
.Despite attempted manipulation by OPEC or any other nations, the world price of oil will decline. <br />
(An exception may occur if production facilities are destroyed or shipping halted during wartime.) <br />
.The .debt forgiveness. movement in the third world will eventually move to developed countries and see many of its goals realized. <br />
<br />
.The price/earnings ratio for the S&P will hit single digits (probably falling below 6), while the annual dividend yield on the Dow and S&P will rise into double digits (probably rising above 17 percent). <br />
.Market timing will come to be viewed as the best approach to investing in stocks, although investing in stocks in the first place will be considered foolhardy. .Buy and hold. will be denounced as a flawed and foolish approach to the stock market. <br />
.The demographic argument for a continued boom fueled by baby boomer spending and retirement savings will be transformed (somewhere near the bottom of the decline) into an argument that the same portion of the population will be responsible for a continued bust. <br />
.Many of the governments and corporate entities that have been bailed out by the U.S. government and the IMF over the course of the last 34 years will fail again, along with new ones. The IMF, World Bank, the Fed and other financing entities will not bail them out. <br />
. The IMF, World Bank and the United Nations will be shut down. <br />
.Existing high-yield .junk. bonds will fall to zero, and new ones will no longer be issued. <br />
.After a period of exclusively derisive and negative popular allusions to the stock market, references to stocks in non-financial settings will become all but non-existent. <br />
.Countless difficulties attending the above events will occur. <br />
.Bearish speculators will make a lot of money, and safety-minded investors will see their purchasing power rise. <br />
<br />
The Economy <br />
<br />
.The trend toward economic contraction that began in 2001 will continue to develop into a depression. <br />
.The unemployment rate in the U.S. and in most countries around the world will rise and eventually exceed 25 percent. <br />
.A record number of manufacturing companies in the U.S. will fail. <br />
.Countries will adopt numerous trade restrictions, import taxes and other protectionist measures. <br />
.Consumer confidence will fall to record low levels. <br />
.The number of new skyscrapers will decline dramatically. <br />
.Affordable housing will become difficult to come by. Family members will move in with each other. <br />
.Homelessness will increase. <br />
.China will have a severe economic setback along with the rest of the world, but it will be a .wave 2, from which the country will emerge as the economic leader of the world. <br />
<br />
Politics <br />
<br />
.George W. Bush, as we have said since his election and through his highest popularity ratings, will lose the 2004 election, probably in a landslide. <br />
.A Democrat will be the next president. (I think it will be Hillary Clinton, currently not a candidate.) <br />
.Many of the entities that were privatized or .de-regulated. during the bull market will be re-nationalized and re-regulated. (A less-likely but possible alternative is that many regulatory agencies will be abolished.) <br />
.Wave (a) of the bear market in social mood will bedevil more than one president. <br />
.The occupation of Iraq by the U.S. will progress from a quagmire to a financial, political and public relations disaster. <br />
.Terrorists will attack the U.S. again, more severely than on 9/11/01, probably within the next 18 months. <br />
. Separatist movements will gain momentum. Many will successfully establish new geopolitical entities. <br />
.Fears about technology will lead to restrictions on its development. <br />
.Politics will become far more polarized, splintered and radical. <br />
.Social Security in its current form will fail. <br />
.The U.S. will threaten and possibly attack more countries. More countries will oppose U.S. interests. <br />
.The Third World War, which began on 9/11/01, will escalate. <br />
.The U.S. will increase restrictions on immigration. <br />
<br />
.The U.S. will require internal travel papers. <br />
.Both patriotism and anti-government sentiment will grow into powerful emotional forces. <br />
.Openness and transparency will give way to secrecy. Spies and exclusive social organizations will have increased standing and power. <br />
.The U.S. will accelerate its trend toward socialism. Opposition to that trend will be vigorous. <br />
.Suspicion or hatred of foreigners will increase around the globe. <br />
.Nations will tend away from liberal, representative governments and toward dictatorships. <br />
.The Drug War will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized. <br />
.Government will ration goods and services in which it is or becomes involved (such as gasoline, vaccines, medical care, electricity, water, food, etc.). <br />
.International travel will be restricted, whether by statute or dangerous conditions. <br />
.The U.S. and state governments will finish their takeover and demolition of the medical industry. <br />
.Third parties will gain political clout and win local elections. Libertarians, greens and others will capture many local offices and probably at least one state government. <br />
.At least one of the two major parties will disappear or re-form. <br />
<br />
Other Social Trends<br />
<br />
.Social groups, including economic, political, religious, genders and classes, will polarize and splinter <br />
.The birth rate will continue to fall in the U.S. and Europe until the bear market in social mood (as <br />
.Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate. <br />
further. I.e., they will polarize both internally and with respect to opposing groups. <br />
indicated by the downtrend in stock prices) ends. <br />
.Religious intolerance will increase. <br />
.Belief in magic will increase. <br />
.Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes. <br />
.Epidemics will increase in number and severity. Malaria will return to the U.S. Eventually, DDT will be re-legalized. <br />
.Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture. <br />
.Environmentalists will become militant and intentionally destructive. <br />
.Disney.s family-fare feature cartoons will fall in popularity, and the studio will stop making them. <br />
.Professional baseball and basketball will suffer difficulties. New record performances by individuals will become rare. No team will have a .dynasty. during the bear market. Leagues will restructure. Attendance and viewership will fall. Salaries will decrease. <br />
.New brutal sports will be introduced and gain popularity. <br />
.Physical fitness (.working out.) will go out of style. <br />
.The U.S. space program will be shut down. <br />
.Conspiracy theories will become more plentiful, and more people will believe them. <br />
.People will rate .the future. as increasingly less promising. <br />
.Race relations will become strained and violent. <br />
.The suicide rate will go up. <br />
.Mob violence will break out more often than it did from 1982 to 2000. <br />
.Mass demonstrations, expressing anger with some social situation, will occur. <br />
.Hemlines will fall, and bright colors will go out of style. <br />
.Music sales will slump, and popular music will become somber and/or angry. <br />
.Hedonism will flourish. Pornography will become more bizarre. These trends will meet with social and political backlash, as mainstream behavior will simultaneously become more conservative. <br />
.Popular self-help books will change focus from wealth and self improvement to surviving hard times and beating adversaries. <br />
.Cults and other escapist communities will be established. <br />
.Food scares, probably including mad cow disease, will hit the U.S. <br />
.Most restaurants will decline in popularity. .Family-style. traditional fare and home cooking will become popular. <br />
.Interest in producing the plays of Shakespeare will wane. <br />
.Anti-gay, racist and xenophobic entities will organize and openly pursue their agendas. <br />
.Areas of cities will become dangerous places in which street gangs .rule. some neighborhoods. <br />
.The number of Broadway shows will fall dramatically. <br />
.Disney will close its NYC theater productions, and Times Square will become X-rated again. <br />
.Well-off people will adopt fashions that conceal rather than accentuate their wealth. <br />
.Gangsters, pirates and other outlaws will become popular folk heroes. <br />
.Entertainment media will feature fewer heroes and more anti-heroes. <br />
.The Olympic Games will be cancelled at least once, if not terminated altogether. <br />
.Organized labor will grow and become more active. The number and severity of strikes will rise. <br />
.Many amusement parks will close. <br />
.The number of coffee shops in the United States will decline substantially. <br />
.Per capita consumption of alcohol and other depressants will increase. <br />
.Public art, such as sculptures and murals, will become ponderous and ugly. <br />
.One or more of the sciences will go through a .paradigm shift.. <br />
.Terrible secret activities that we could not even imagine will take place, some to be revealed only years or decades later. (It was revealed decades later that the U.S. government (allegedly for the greater good) conducted syphilis experiments on citizens beginning in 1932, the year that the Supercycle wave (IV) bear market bottomed. It was revealed only last week that from 1939 to 1941, in the final years of the Cycle wave II bear market, Nazi Germany (allegedly for the greater good) systematically killed hospital patients to unburden the state and .cleanse the gene pool..)pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-15326030517133263542009-10-23T08:44:00.001-07:002010-01-24T07:42:04.142-08:00Przewartościowanie akcji<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYa87afeqnW8Y8hIfPR2HsxrYuQD1h0j6UDAafnZmrxoAuphA0OXU1_lpaqOltqwQh4i3YOn4j9r6aCEhwsUweHXtF37ZcC7z8TOx1FaX7tHZYnIFBnyeaPvdkrbLRVA4IJ6zZs51ZZC4/s1600-h/S&P_funds-cash.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395826730923573826" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiYa87afeqnW8Y8hIfPR2HsxrYuQD1h0j6UDAafnZmrxoAuphA0OXU1_lpaqOltqwQh4i3YOn4j9r6aCEhwsUweHXtF37ZcC7z8TOx1FaX7tHZYnIFBnyeaPvdkrbLRVA4IJ6zZs51ZZC4/s320/S&P_funds-cash.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 192px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioD0NVhDpiLVAAgU_gqfsROsh33CDR1j6G1M-Q3FINwfxMrRpv9AFydAVZXHtQSGfZ8C_eLbFKTBMv7BKRSzrYohWFDa4egxx6ktmI7T1myZKG6_cqXA8cVF44zODOWsZtKsdxbP6D_tk/s1600-h/S&P_earnings.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395826668914276002" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEioD0NVhDpiLVAAgU_gqfsROsh33CDR1j6G1M-Q3FINwfxMrRpv9AFydAVZXHtQSGfZ8C_eLbFKTBMv7BKRSzrYohWFDa4egxx6ktmI7T1myZKG6_cqXA8cVF44zODOWsZtKsdxbP6D_tk/s320/S&P_earnings.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 235px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCSuXdT-Q1OFzhCDDvdDe0MRWoBrLuaFWfqVV3-tdX2VDJuCOW56mSoW1pyU31XslFIkNht98-kuuaqTc0P55sTdaL_L4guQQ9seGgomrEQ3vs5Vyjf4ilZ9pj-NER8QpEJNAG4d7SYQA/s1600-h/cash-sp.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395826605447172818" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCSuXdT-Q1OFzhCDDvdDe0MRWoBrLuaFWfqVV3-tdX2VDJuCOW56mSoW1pyU31XslFIkNht98-kuuaqTc0P55sTdaL_L4guQQ9seGgomrEQ3vs5Vyjf4ilZ9pj-NER8QpEJNAG4d7SYQA/s320/cash-sp.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 320px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 275px;" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs7TRHoXtWOpa-sm2Yqu4bwLcMAOQ9-JR6bT_4Tk6HQdU5G1V01A8krNyMp8Ii8UWeyOm9SXf0FrU4NwEcQxn26xoHTQOvrqIIkGdOoYyAdY80jqsgILtHEvZC2G6WxCsldsy6IgjKD_k/s1600-h/Bond_S&P.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395826536300084594" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgs7TRHoXtWOpa-sm2Yqu4bwLcMAOQ9-JR6bT_4Tk6HQdU5G1V01A8krNyMp8Ii8UWeyOm9SXf0FrU4NwEcQxn26xoHTQOvrqIIkGdOoYyAdY80jqsgILtHEvZC2G6WxCsldsy6IgjKD_k/s320/Bond_S&P.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 320px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 272px;" /></a><br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBCVUKw12h8Utx34xMp-R2wD6_aUZtsDuynsGaNTVbdXq283q-JBqre0ipotZArVLFjHavtXmVtdcFHfDeUHrSok6eQ2BE1LGMZ-Da01k85BqRnx8-y7RRxp55jeIEWfNURgwSv4hMj04/s1600-h/bloom010909d.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395826466074986370" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgBCVUKw12h8Utx34xMp-R2wD6_aUZtsDuynsGaNTVbdXq283q-JBqre0ipotZArVLFjHavtXmVtdcFHfDeUHrSok6eQ2BE1LGMZ-Da01k85BqRnx8-y7RRxp55jeIEWfNURgwSv4hMj04/s320/bloom010909d.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 232px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygAunK3GLZMdOUcVYcgbkGiSDgfVvC8aYLQKVB3EdRHfzCPGqT2QVorn2zgdH67od2bu5AJemTzdzNxXafohuDVBdoLJ9IPI8qHkQmixdpHLxU3CUrknRQ1d12EtsVsrhV2tX2zM6bV4/s1600-h/DJIA_divid.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5395822113132658674" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgygAunK3GLZMdOUcVYcgbkGiSDgfVvC8aYLQKVB3EdRHfzCPGqT2QVorn2zgdH67od2bu5AJemTzdzNxXafohuDVBdoLJ9IPI8qHkQmixdpHLxU3CUrknRQ1d12EtsVsrhV2tX2zM6bV4/s320/DJIA_divid.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 256px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 320px;" /></a><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/1-15-10-Market-Cap.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="239" src="http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/1-15-10-Market-Cap.gif" width="320" /></a><br />
</div>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-48068032002288732562009-10-18T09:41:00.000-07:002010-04-18T09:45:57.971-07:00WIG - kiedy kupować ?Korzystając z programu Metastock przeanalizowałem zachowanie się indeksu WIG w różnych okresach czasowych. <br />
Pierwszy wykres pokazuje schemat dziesięcioletni. WIG zachował sie zgodnie z sugestiami AT, do tego oba dziesięciolecia powtarzają się dość podobnie.<br />
Drugi wykres pokazuje zyski w poszczególnych latach. Ze względu na niewielką ilość danych trudno tu o głębsze wnioski. Najlepsze lata 3, 6, 9, najgorszy rok 8.<br />
Najlepsze miesiące to 1, 4, 7, 12, a w zasadzie zgodnie ze wskazówkami okres zimowy od listopada do maja.<br />
Następny wykres to dni miesiąca. Wyraźna tendencja do pozytywnych inwestycji na przełomie miesiąca (-4,+4). Najgorsze środek miesiąca (sesje 9-20)<br />
No i dni tygodnia. Najlepszy ponidziałek, najgorszy piątek<br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp55Mujw_rXOHZKxL6ZuNZerKD3ca_0OB9genyG-AcdJTNLfH2X9LF_wl9XWNyqdHqC8WWH9gqh93VDCjxufnL_qlAw6Delj7Xl9sDG3gW04hrf8V6IyQwnhH8XEBBg5fQb7c9Sbu7VKU/s1600/schemat+10lat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgp55Mujw_rXOHZKxL6ZuNZerKD3ca_0OB9genyG-AcdJTNLfH2X9LF_wl9XWNyqdHqC8WWH9gqh93VDCjxufnL_qlAw6Delj7Xl9sDG3gW04hrf8V6IyQwnhH8XEBBg5fQb7c9Sbu7VKU/s400/schemat+10lat.jpg" width="400" wt="true" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL69yzltjxcVvsvf66nSeyQTSyMSfD6LlfH2JtHlsebxdCojW2gA_UNU-qzP7-PN6tX8kV2fy6mbCzjXGoxgoHH4yD6KDM5HrDCeYFTgstMtI4JRcoiaa2IxgUXSaNQNILdVJHifAMoWA/s1600/dni+miesiÄ…ca.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhL69yzltjxcVvsvf66nSeyQTSyMSfD6LlfH2JtHlsebxdCojW2gA_UNU-qzP7-PN6tX8kV2fy6mbCzjXGoxgoHH4yD6KDM5HrDCeYFTgstMtI4JRcoiaa2IxgUXSaNQNILdVJHifAMoWA/s400/dni+miesi%C4%85ca.jpg" width="400" wt="true" /></a> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZdD8DVbybGFcG1-JvXEc2ufYYOI_-qesbFQWSvOi86Y6cJCeub95wfD1lxd_dI4O7TecwY9WNviVIFl_0YRfAwzYTc1jHPOPTsy5qF6qaKTd5uVyU25iZs6cISDxsQWZtHNgebiP7OEs/s1600/dni+tygodnia.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="247" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZdD8DVbybGFcG1-JvXEc2ufYYOI_-qesbFQWSvOi86Y6cJCeub95wfD1lxd_dI4O7TecwY9WNviVIFl_0YRfAwzYTc1jHPOPTsy5qF6qaKTd5uVyU25iZs6cISDxsQWZtHNgebiP7OEs/s400/dni+tygodnia.jpg" width="400" wt="true" /></a></div>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-26585011991373234062009-10-15T08:57:00.000-07:002011-06-20T01:03:03.328-07:00Aktywność słoneczna a giełdaWg badań aktywność słońca wpływa na cykle w rolnictwie, biznesie i na zachowania inwestorów. Wraz ze zmniejszeniem się aktywności słońca indeksy giełdowe mają tendencję do spadków i odwrotnie.<br />
<br />
Zastanówmy się co się działo w Polsce w tych latach:<br />
1907, 18, 29, 39, 48, 56, 68, 80, 89, 2001<br />
Prawda, że ciekawa korelacja z różnymi wydarzeniami historycznymi ?<br />
<br />
Poniżej kilka wykresów z raportu R.Prechtera z 09.2000r.<br />
Wykres aktywności słońca i DIJA ( z dodaną prawą częścią wykresu):<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDT6pOFPkhnfQOq3l5M_DzbTIrTJIQ7snkwMlZUwXm0AvLhQZuXMS8A0itOAW5lJb_xK54ZozGCGrI4_2_KhCjdMBMVao70bA6UkClFBx_DdNsJspZNBzyFKEOH1keGnk3CuXZtEjCwm0/s1600-h/sunspot+activity-pl.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404376264682267906" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgDT6pOFPkhnfQOq3l5M_DzbTIrTJIQ7snkwMlZUwXm0AvLhQZuXMS8A0itOAW5lJb_xK54ZozGCGrI4_2_KhCjdMBMVao70bA6UkClFBx_DdNsJspZNBzyFKEOH1keGnk3CuXZtEjCwm0/s320/sunspot+activity-pl.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 276px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 432px;" /></a><br />
<br />
Dołek na rynkach akcji wyprzedza o kilkanaście miesięcy dołek aktywności słońca. Także szczyty są wcześniej.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZMSVqMwpDn4ZqFI41bi2KB8PBZbBTv4BJhyphenhypheneIdvD1e4eDCFUN2Zw4rmLB48N0Rg4m5WyieBrHfOZizy1_mujJTiBVIyE0wGZ81hgIUSPuPG9P1di75H7c4n2seK8gLaBm-z1BGPTWbbI/s1600-h/Sunspot+roc.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404376136554012562" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZMSVqMwpDn4ZqFI41bi2KB8PBZbBTv4BJhyphenhypheneIdvD1e4eDCFUN2Zw4rmLB48N0Rg4m5WyieBrHfOZizy1_mujJTiBVIyE0wGZ81hgIUSPuPG9P1di75H7c4n2seK8gLaBm-z1BGPTWbbI/s320/Sunspot+roc.jpg" style="cursor: hand; cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 349px; margin: 0 10px 10px 0; width: 420px;" /></a><br />
<br />
Wiele z boomów w różnych aktywach możemy połączyć ze zwiększoną aktywnością słońca<br />
<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnP2TmIjs-lgNPiGFvSd-aIz0qlplUvRB5COtHpLNdovI1ok6bFbueFsoChJFNlOjxfh8enGbM877v6ztJ_pzMwffFuiOLupNYRE2gMyqeTqfjbcvbz60lm8BFSKY7DBoBKsSml1eZOLs/s1600-h/Sunspot+mania.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5404376035385872098" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnP2TmIjs-lgNPiGFvSd-aIz0qlplUvRB5COtHpLNdovI1ok6bFbueFsoChJFNlOjxfh8enGbM877v6ztJ_pzMwffFuiOLupNYRE2gMyqeTqfjbcvbz60lm8BFSKY7DBoBKsSml1eZOLs/s320/Sunspot+mania.jpg" style="float: left; height: 364px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 10px; margin-top: 0px; width: 420px;" /></a>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-52203250840205828542009-10-14T11:25:00.002-07:002012-12-16T07:07:06.644-08:00Długi<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/debt-2-GDP2.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro/debt-2-GDP2.jpg" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 361px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 450px;" /></a><br />
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<a href="http://www.oftwominds.com/photos09/debt-chart1929-2008.gif"><img alt="" border="0" src="http://www.oftwominds.com/photos09/debt-chart1929-2008.gif" style="cursor: pointer; float: left; height: 260px; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; width: 400px;" /></a><br />
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<img src="http://www.kwaves.com/debt_gdp.gif" /><br />
<img src="http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83451986b69e2010536f30035970c-800wi" /><br />
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<img height="253" src="http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2009/3/2/saupload_debt_to_gdp.png" width="400" /><br />
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Australia<br />
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<img src="http://onlineopinion.com.au/images/article-images/LongTermDebt.gif" /><br />
<img height="300" src="http://www.creditloan.com/infographics/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/national-debt.gif" width="400" />pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-46676866466376070022009-10-14T09:35:00.000-07:002010-04-03T09:50:38.391-07:00Liczby Fibonacciego<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfe780KbmxZZ9u6qgRD66fPPD6nOO_xL6vt73Fz5fpzZ9iIiXXuYB11yly4QRDnUvpk7lbhPgzZ56_ayht6bLf9GR146V5y02EV8vZHHkgof0ogbikB48C4JcQ7lK8B0ZisqdDootYmqI/s1600-h/Butterfly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjfe780KbmxZZ9u6qgRD66fPPD6nOO_xL6vt73Fz5fpzZ9iIiXXuYB11yly4QRDnUvpk7lbhPgzZ56_ayht6bLf9GR146V5y02EV8vZHHkgof0ogbikB48C4JcQ7lK8B0ZisqdDootYmqI/s320/Butterfly.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhKQsgYqOwLecengTW2YCEQSsY-S7pwZe4BITHD5_h5uWesIee7DsBexFl8F_YOdGemVBDb8RSYozNhcuXu2pilxywn61gI5wOxUeHNoLtib0VNibhvR3Zf1drJlyLoSXg5jHuDCVG8/s1600-h/Bat.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhFrhKQsgYqOwLecengTW2YCEQSsY-S7pwZe4BITHD5_h5uWesIee7DsBexFl8F_YOdGemVBDb8RSYozNhcuXu2pilxywn61gI5wOxUeHNoLtib0VNibhvR3Zf1drJlyLoSXg5jHuDCVG8/s320/Bat.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQxo6LG2UzXyQEdU8kWYRuncFZdPbU76bN_mYWX6AGMsFqkXErmyq0hWjRGUz2BRY7jTjzgPYGaoWo1SewxY9Y0khlHhCa2A1k9I28Oz_jQT01A8Nmyr9U-O4XzHA0cX5Iz2vQal5ZP4k/s1600-h/Gartney.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQxo6LG2UzXyQEdU8kWYRuncFZdPbU76bN_mYWX6AGMsFqkXErmyq0hWjRGUz2BRY7jTjzgPYGaoWo1SewxY9Y0khlHhCa2A1k9I28Oz_jQT01A8Nmyr9U-O4XzHA0cX5Iz2vQal5ZP4k/s320/Gartney.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn8B1ssVxHMmrdmSyfkYp3mOoqvNae0yae-Izzj935lHTvrmzt5H7_T9Z9NiimWRF1JbfbgqA2CFDtcbGOT45BNTvsSFs-crUEDM4-C9g9knis7je0gfgpIxxACJbyly-XS3-Y94_wEak/s1600-h/XABCD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhn8B1ssVxHMmrdmSyfkYp3mOoqvNae0yae-Izzj935lHTvrmzt5H7_T9Z9NiimWRF1JbfbgqA2CFDtcbGOT45BNTvsSFs-crUEDM4-C9g9knis7je0gfgpIxxACJbyly-XS3-Y94_wEak/s320/XABCD.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKEuxTv-Za_UJ7qpINNmtLh_oEwRryr2Fiu0bnHhjaXwokswNdnb9aJc0OQpCD4_uw-Mln2cS8P33wH0W2sSCfH7QsAJwGjWVMovYUU3Tt3SoRdV69a9YH2LuGbuDptKffmJJ1RfgRddQ/s1600-h/ABCD.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKEuxTv-Za_UJ7qpINNmtLh_oEwRryr2Fiu0bnHhjaXwokswNdnb9aJc0OQpCD4_uw-Mln2cS8P33wH0W2sSCfH7QsAJwGjWVMovYUU3Tt3SoRdV69a9YH2LuGbuDptKffmJJ1RfgRddQ/s320/ABCD.jpg" /></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnm0yzIM27SFlwZtcoIWn_84zbi0aj_sn79IA5qeSXFwxwqdgDiDeru5kK0fsb4H0ErMie5r-2XqSDnA_2esq4Fo8dm_lF3p_rjvim_cwiJ3z8G30DOxWAERjboIWmgPwBMx5NFHIOvSg/s1600-h/App.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; 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text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZe4eF9pfTWLoJEQSPFs-tpHq2XBYrkpm-SQnNZAkERc91gWouC9_3Hz94xomNzOgqd-uDGhH0xakgb6b87ber9-eC74JSLTCpq2aiQBp6Lm0P2Beuj7ZUtHC3awybKkz80V50EOf9iY/s1600-h/Liczby_fibo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" ct="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhKZe4eF9pfTWLoJEQSPFs-tpHq2XBYrkpm-SQnNZAkERc91gWouC9_3Hz94xomNzOgqd-uDGhH0xakgb6b87ber9-eC74JSLTCpq2aiQBp6Lm0P2Beuj7ZUtHC3awybKkz80V50EOf9iY/s320/Liczby_fibo.jpg" /> </a> </div><div align="left" class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br />
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http://bossa.pl/index.jsp?layout=2&page=0&news_cat_id=210&news_id=1184<br />
http://www.inwestycje24h.pl/liczby-fibonacciego-jako-system-inwestycyjny.html<br />
<br />
http://www.harmonicanalyzer.com program<br />
http://www.harmonictrader.com książka<br />
<br />
Opracowano na podstawie: Danielewicz "Geometria Fibonacciego"<br />
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</div><div align="left"></div>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-62525547176581757202009-10-12T11:25:00.000-07:002011-01-06T06:31:51.327-08:00Wielka depresja i RooseveltŹródła:<br />
Great Myths of the Great Depression by Lawrence W. Reed.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/www.mackinac.org/archives/1998/sp1998-01.pdf">www.mackinac.org/archives/1998/sp1998-01.pdf</a><br />
America's Great Depression by Murray N. Rothbard<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf">mises.org/rothbard/agd.pdf</a><br />
Garet Garrett, The Bubble that Broke the World,<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf">www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf</a><a href="http://www.blogger.com/www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf"><br />
</a><br />
What You Must Read About the Great Depression<br />
<a href="http://mises.org/story/3349">http://mises.org/story/3349</a><br />
Forthcoming in the Encyclopædia Britannica. Christina D. Romer<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/elsa.berkeley.edu/~cromer/great_depression.pdf">elsa.berkeley.edu/~cromer/great_depression.pdf</a><br />
Did FDR End the Great Depression?<br />
<a href="http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/04/did-fdr-end-the-great-depression.html">http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/04/did-fdr-end-the-great-depression.html</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/2010/12/30/rothbard-o-wielkim-kryzysie-w-ameryce/">http://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/2010/12/30/rothbard-o-wielkim-kryzysie-w-ameryce/</a><br />
<br />
Osobiście nie przywiązuję do osób nadmiernej wagi. Są produktem nastrojów społecznych i to one decydują. Ani Roosevelta ani np. Reagana nie uważam za cudotwórcę czy przyczynę zła.<br />
Ale niech jego zwolennicy przypomną co on takiego dobrego zrobił bo ja nie widzę.<br />
przypomnijmy trochę faktów:<br />
<br />
Bezrobocie w 1933 wynosiło 25%. Po kilku latach spadków w roku 38 wzrosło do 20% a w roku 1941 wynosiło 17%. Nie najlepszy wynik.<br />
Spadło dopiero po II wojnie św., kiedy zlikwidowano większość regulacji, które wprowadził<br />
<br />
Przypomnijmy, że to jego działania spowodowały depresję w depresji w 1937-38r. PKB spadł o 18% (W latach 1929-1933 spadek wyniósł 36%)<br />
<br />
Produkcja przemysłowa nigdy nie wzrosła ponad poziom z roku 1933.<br />
<br />
Protekcjonizm spowodował spadek handlu światowego o 2/3<br />
Np. 60tys ludzi straciło pracę w przemyśle odzieżowym z powodu ceł na wełnę<br />
<br />
W celu podtrzymania cen topiono zboże w morzu i np. zabito 6 milion prosiąt. Czy można sobie wyobrazić tą głupotę, kiedy ludzie nie mieli co jeść ?<br />
<br />
Wprowadził płace minimalne co spowodowało m.in. że 600tys murzynów straciło pracę.<br />
<br />
Jako pierwszy płacił farmerom za nic nie robienie<br />
<br />
Wsadzał ludzi do więzienia za zaniżanie cen<br />
<br />
Dolar zdewaluowany o 40%<br />
<br />
W 1933r 2000 banków padło (w Kanadzie ani jeden)<br />
<br />
Hoover podniósł income tax do 63%, Roosevelt do 90%, ale próbował przeforsować 99.9%<br />
<br />
Parę ciekawych cytatów Roosevelta i jego współpracowników:<br />
<br />
<i>Roosevelt blasted Hoover for spending and taxing too much, boosting the national debt, choking off trade, and putting millions on the dole. He accused the president of “reckless and extravagant” spending, of thinking “that we ought to center control of everything in Washington as rapidly as possible,” and of presiding over “the greatest spending administration in peacetime in all of history.”<br />
leading the country down the path of socialism.”</i> (wybory w 1932r)<br />
<br />
<i>We didn’t admit it at the time, but practically the whole New Deal was extrapolated from programs that Hoover started.”<br />
<br />
It called for a 25-percent reduction in federal spending, a balanced federal budget, a sound gold currency “to be preserved at all hazards</i> (<b>moje ulubione</b>)<br />
<br />
<i>“If anybody ever knew how we really set the gold price through a combination of lucky numbers, I think they would be frightened.”<br />
<br />
In the first year of the New Deal, Roosevelt proposed spending $10 billion while revenues were only $3 billion. Between 1933 and 1936, government expenditures rose by more than 83 percent. Federal debt<br />
skyrocketed by 73 percent.<br />
<br />
Through the whole of the NRA period industrial production did not rise as high as it had been in July 1933, before NRA came in<br />
in the spring of 1939 asked, “Do you think the attitude of the Roosevelt administration toward business is delaying business recovery?” the American people responded “yes” by a margin of more than two-to-one. The business community felt even more strongly so.<br />
<br />
We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work. ... We have never made good on our promises. ... I say after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started ... and an enormous debt to boot!</i>pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4164340619086396522.post-88246132580905801522009-10-06T06:01:00.000-07:002012-12-28T10:00:33.560-08:00Cytaty„Państwo to wielka fikcja, dzięki której każdy usiłuje żyć
kosztem innych” Bastiat<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
„Nie ma takiego okrucieństwa ani takiej niesprawiedliwości,
której nie mógłby dopuścić się skądinąd łagodny i liberalny rząd - jeśli
zabraknie mu pieniędzy.” - Alexis de Tocqueville</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Hazlitt: żadna inflacja w historii nie osiągnęła nic ponad
dewaluacje pieniądza, redystrybucję zysków i strat, dezorganizację produkcji i
gospodarczą demoralizację. Tak było zawsze, niezależnie od tego, czy zaczniemy
od Rzymu, czy Johna Lawa i jego fałszerskiego schematu. I w podręcznikach do
historii dzisiejszy okres będzie kiedyś oceniany zapewne tak samo.</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Kapitalizm libertariański oparty na własności prywatnej to
jedyny system kompatybilny z naturą człowieka. H.de Soto</div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Popieram rząd ograniczony w maksymalnym możliwym stopniu,
wliczając w to nawet brak państwa. H. de Soto</div>
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Aktualny stan rzeczy faworyzuje najniższe i najbardziej
perwersyjne skłonności ludzkie. H.de
Soto</div>
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Definiuję socjalizm, jako każdy system instytucjonalnej
agresji skierowanej przeciwko wolnej przedsiębiorczości. H.de Soto.</div>
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Socjalizm to błąd intelektualny. H.de Soto</div>
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Alexis de Tocqueville-najgroźniejszy moment przychodzi
wtedy, kiedy marny rząd podejmuje ambitne reformy.</div>
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"Za co się państwo bierze, to spieprzy" T.Lis</div>
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Ale dopóki muzyka pras drukarskich gra, trzeba wstać i
tańczyć.Rybiński</div>
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Jeśli chcemy utrzymać wolne społeczeństwo to za wszelką cenę
musimy powstrzymać inflację wywoływaną przez rządy i władze monetarne.</div>
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<br /></div>
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gospodarka socjalistyczna to taki system, w którym ryzyko
gospodarcze przeniesione jest z poziomu poszczególnych przedsiębiorstw
(przedsiębiorców) na poziom państwa.</div>
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----------------------------------------------------</div>
<br />
You cannot avoid the consequences of easy credit, just as you cannot avoid the consequences of taking amphetamines for months on end. The true lesson for society: don’t create monopoly mechanisms that foster easy credit. R.Prechter<br />
---<br />
RonPaul.com There is conservative Keynesianism and liberal Keynesianism which always fails and gives us the financial crisis we are in."<br />
<br />
If You Are in a Hole, Stop Digging!<br />
<br />
The market would do whatever it could to cause the most pain to the most people<br />
<br />
Government spending multiplier is zero (Professor Robert Barro's book, Macroeconomics - a Modern Approach)<br />
<br />
Taxes have a multiplier effect of three. That means tax cuts increase GDP (over time) by three times their amount. But tax increases reduce GDP by three times the increase<br />
<br />
As Thatcher said, socialism doesn’t work because you run out of other peoples money to spend (waste)<br />
<br />
Things that don't make sense can go on longer than we think.<br />
<br />
Tax cuts have a three-times-greater positive effect on GDP, and tax increases have the same level of negative effect.<br />
<br />
Pumping money into as system does not improve quality; it increases prices.<br />
<br />
Inflation is a tax on the middle class for the direct benefit of the government and those with first access to money (banks and the already wealthy).M.Shedlock<br />
<br />
As Benjamin Franklin once said, "People will give their liberty in exchange for short term security. And in the end they will have neither"<br />
<br />
Capitalism is primarily attacked by two groups: utopians who wish to impose a more “compassionate” system, and political capitalists who want to enjoy the fruits of success without bearing the pain of failure. They use the coercion of the state to gain privileges, at the expense of everyone else.<br />
<br />
R. Prechter: Keynesians and monetarists are fundamentally wrong about everything<br />
<br />
Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth - Alan Greenspan<br />
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US">Sir Ernest
Rutherford, the father of nuclear physics, once said to his staff: “Gentleman,
we have run out of money. It is time to start thinking.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">We’re going
into a never-ending depression unless we repudiate the debt, which never should
have been extended in the first place.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">There is
never enough debt to satisfy Keynesians. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">There is
never enough fiat currency to satisfy Monetarists.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">I believe
that if it were not for govemment interference with the monetary system, we
would have no industrial fluctuations and no periods of depression. Hayek<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">bull markets inflate the belief in the power of
central banks, while bear markets expose officials’ incompetence<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Government stimulus and deficits have no
long-run positive effect on GDP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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Tax cuts
have a three-times-greater positive effect on GDP, and tax increases have the
same level of negative effect</div>
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Pumping
money into a system does not improve quality; it increases prices</div>
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I believe
that if it were not for govemment interference with the monetary system, we
would have no industrial fluctuations and no periods of depression. Hayek</div>
</div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The
political system is entirely under the control of the zombies. The only
resolution of this is catastrophe — either in the form of bankruptcy,
hyperinflation, war, revolution, or some combination.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">If you tell
a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe
it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the
people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie. It
thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to
repress dissent, for the truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by
extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State."<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Joseph Goebbels, Chief Nazi Propagandist<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Social
Security Trust Fund" is neither secure...nor funded...nor to be trusted. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">as Bastiat
said: the real cost of the state is the prosperity we do not see, the jobs that
don’t exist, the technologies to which we do not have access, the businesses
that do not come into existence, and the bright future that is stolen from us.
The state has looted us just as surely as a robber who enters our home at night
and steals all that we love.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“It is a
central irony of financial crisis that while it is caused by too much
confidence, too much borrowing and lending, and too much spending, it can only
be resolved with more confidence, more borrowing and lending, and more
spending.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">John
Maynard Keynes in 1921, basically said: Inflation impoverishes a nation,
secretly and quietly, creates enmity, but funds a government nonetheless.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">Keynes in
1921:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">“By a
continuing process of inflation, Governments can confiscate, secretly and
unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method
they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the
process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some …. Those to whom the
system brings windfalls …. become “profiteers” who are the object of the hatred
… the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery ..
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning
the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages
all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it
in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The best
way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a
continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved,
an important part of the wealth of their citizens.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">John
Maynard Keynes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">People only
accept change when they are faced with necessity, and only recognize necessity
when a crisis is upon them.</span>- Jean
Monnet</div>
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<span lang="EN-US"> the problem is the government. The government
is not the solution. Hyperinflations are made by governments, debt defaults are
made by governments, exchange rates crises are made by governments.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">every
government program ultimately brings about the opposite of the stated goal<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The Trouble
With Socialism Is That Eventually Governments Run Out Of Other People's Money<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">The market
can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - John Maynard Keynes<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">As Benjamin
Franklin once said, "People will give their liberty in exchange for short
term security. And in the end they will have neither"<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">government
stimulus and deficits have no long-run positive effect on GDP<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN-US">There is
conservative Keynesianism and liberal Keynesianism which always fails and gives
us the financial crisis we are in.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
pawel-lhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17479633451817612923noreply@blogger.com0