Socjonomia wg Prechtera

W 2003r Prechter opublikował prognozy dot. różnych aspektów życia społecznego. Warto przejrzeć tą listę i sprawdzić co już jest aktualne, a co nas jeszcze czeka.

Positive mood/Negative mood
adventurousness / protectionism
alignment / opposition
benevolence / malevolence
clarity / fuzziness
concord / discord
confidence / fear
constructiveness / destructiveness
convergence / polarization
daring / defensiveness
desiring power over nature / over people
ebullience / depression
embrace of effort / avoidance of effort
forbearance / anger
friskiness / somberness
happiness / unhappiness
homogeneity / heterogeneity
inclusion / exclusion
interest in love / interest in sex
liberality / restriction
optimism / pessimism
practical thinking / magical thinking
search for joy / search for pleasure
self providence / self deprivation
sharpness of focus / dullness of focus
supportiveness / opposition
tendency to praise / tendency to criticize
togetherness / separatism

SOME SOCIONOMIC OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS
Observations
The downturn in social mood that began in the first quarter of 2000, as indicated by the trend in the
major stock market averages, has produced a change in the character of social events, as predicted by the
socionomic hypothesis. We can observe its workings in almost every field. Many of these social trends we
predicted specifically, some generally. (Note: None of the observations or forecasts listed below is designed
to attack anyone.s patriotism, politics, religion or culture. The social mood is intense, and some people may
find it difficult to assume the role of impassionate observer. Please realize that no offense is intended. It pays
to know what is going on, whether you like or dislike any of the downtrend.s manifestations.)

.The stock market lost fifty percent of its value.
.The economy contracted (officially) for eight months, and the recovery since then has been weak.
.Many bonds have been downgraded. Few have been upgraded, even during the economic recovery
.The federal government placed a tariff on steel imports.
.Quasi-federal agencies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have gone from the peak of public
.Corporate leaders have gone from heroes to goats. Scandals have bedeviled the corporate world.
.The public image of the chairman of the Federal Reserve System has gone from someone who is
.The president.s popularity has waned. Other incumbents have faced ousting.
.Horror movies have increased both in number and in popularity. Torture has been depicted at least
of the past year.

respect to enduring public attack.
infallible to someone who is at least fallible and at worst incompetent.
half a dozen times on prime time television.

.Baseball and basketball have waned in popularity, and football has waxed. Violent sports, such as ultimate fighting. and the like, are becoming popular.
.Name-calling and staunch partisanship have become staples of political commentary.
.The U.S. Treasury.s .budget surplus,. which economists had projected twenty years into the future, has turned into an accelerating deficit.
.Jobs are moving out of the U.S. to China, India and elsewhere.
.The United States was physically attacked for the first time in 60 years.
.The United States has attacked and subdued another country. This act is an extension of the threats that the U.S. under President Clinton issued to seven countries (as chronicled in EWT and EWFF), which President Bush has continued. The attack was characterized as defensive, although the only enemy who had attacked the U.S. was Al Qaeda, an entirely different entity, revealing that the U.S. act was foremost an expression of social anger and fear, not a rational retaliation.
.The occupation of Iraq has turned from an optimistic dream of exporting democracy into a quagmire.
.Religions are fighting each other and becoming stauncher and more political. Radical Muslims are attacking U.S. and other Western (Christian and Jewish) interests, devout Christians (including President Bush) are leading the fight against Arab states, and Jews in Israel are battling radical Muslims. Christians are rallying to impose their religion upon the American state, lobbying for federal tax money to be given to
Christian social groups, asserting that U.S. law is based upon the Ten Commandments (which is demonstrably false), and characterizing the Founding Fathers . Unitarians and Deists almost to a man . as Protestant Christians. A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll reported on September 30 shows 2/3 of the public in favor of using public property to display the Ten Commandments and against using public property to display the
Koran. A similar partisan majority would surely object to state-funded and sanctioned expressions of Judaism, Catholicism, Hinduism, atheism, Scientology, New Age beliefs, etc.
.The founding principles of the United States have been relentlessly destroyed primarily by the left for decades. Now (by the guideline of alternation) the right is leading the onslaught, not only as cited above but also with such freedom-curtailing legislation as the Patriot Act.

Unfortunately, we have few optimistic predictions for the bear market. It is the opposite situation from 1982, when EWT forecast a soaring stock market, a booming economy and .no international war for at least ten years.. The big wave V bull market then due called for positive socionomic results. Today.s bear-market Here is the list of mood opposites presented in Chapter 14 of The Wave Principle of Human Social
Behavior. Generally, all kinds of social units will trend toward the style of behavior on the .negative mood.

The simplest forecast to make is that social mood and its expressions will escalate substantially toward
the right-hand descriptions in the above list. We can also attempt some specific forecasts. Those below are
presented in no particular order beyond their general categories. They are based upon the conjecture that
social mood is about to accelerate toward the negative within a Grand Supercycle degree decline. All of
these forecasts should be fulfilled probably within a dozen years (by the end of wave (a)) but at least within
60 years (by the end of wave (c)).
Finance
.Stock markets around the world will continue to fall. Ultimately, the averages will drop more than 90 percent.
.Real estate values will fall more than they did in the 1930s and 1940s.
.Rating services will resume the trend of downgrading bond quality. Eventually, states, counties, cities, corporations and even nations will default on bonds in record amounts.
.Debt packages made of mortgage-backed bonds, auto loans and credit card debt will become viewed as unworthy investments.
.Many, if not most, pension plans will fall in value and be unable to provide the promised benefits.
Anger over this development will result in demonstrations, violence and tardy and ineffective political reform.
.Prices for collectibles will continue to fall. Many will become little more than curios.
.More banks will fail than failed in the 1930s.
.The total amount of credit outstanding worldwide will decline substantially.
.The Federal Reserve chairman will be labeled a fool who is greatly responsible for the collapse.
.The dollar will lose its place as the world.s reserve currency. Either gold, a currency backed by gold (such as the Islamic dinar), or the Chinese yuan will take its place.
.The Federal Reserve System will be discredited and then abolished.
.The rich. will be vilified, and their property will be increasingly taxed and seized.
.Regulatory and legislative reforms will limit, curtail or ban a number of structures facilitating speculation, such as options, futures, margin lending, hedge funds, mutual funds, IRAs and 401Ks.
.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will shut down.
.Financial news networks will change formats or go off the air.
.Despite attempted manipulation by OPEC or any other nations, the world price of oil will decline.
(An exception may occur if production facilities are destroyed or shipping halted during wartime.)
.The .debt forgiveness. movement in the third world will eventually move to developed countries and see many of its goals realized.

.The price/earnings ratio for the S&P will hit single digits (probably falling below 6), while the annual dividend yield on the Dow and S&P will rise into double digits (probably rising above 17 percent).
.Market timing will come to be viewed as the best approach to investing in stocks, although investing in stocks in the first place will be considered foolhardy. .Buy and hold. will be denounced as a flawed and foolish approach to the stock market.
.The demographic argument for a continued boom fueled by baby boomer spending and retirement savings will be transformed (somewhere near the bottom of the decline) into an argument that the same portion of the population will be responsible for a continued bust.
.Many of the governments and corporate entities that have been bailed out by the U.S. government and the IMF over the course of the last 34 years will fail again, along with new ones. The IMF, World Bank, the Fed and other financing entities will not bail them out.
. The IMF, World Bank and the United Nations will be shut down.
.Existing high-yield .junk. bonds will fall to zero, and new ones will no longer be issued.
.After a period of exclusively derisive and negative popular allusions to the stock market, references to stocks in non-financial settings will become all but non-existent.
.Countless difficulties attending the above events will occur.
.Bearish speculators will make a lot of money, and safety-minded investors will see their purchasing power rise.

The Economy

.The trend toward economic contraction that began in 2001 will continue to develop into a depression.
.The unemployment rate in the U.S. and in most countries around the world will rise and eventually exceed 25 percent.
.A record number of manufacturing companies in the U.S. will fail.
.Countries will adopt numerous trade restrictions, import taxes and other protectionist measures.
.Consumer confidence will fall to record low levels.
.The number of new skyscrapers will decline dramatically.
.Affordable housing will become difficult to come by. Family members will move in with each other.
.Homelessness will increase.
.China will have a severe economic setback along with the rest of the world, but it will be a .wave 2, from which the country will emerge as the economic leader of the world.

Politics

.George W. Bush, as we have said since his election and through his highest popularity ratings, will lose the 2004 election, probably in a landslide.
.A Democrat will be the next president. (I think it will be Hillary Clinton, currently not a candidate.)
.Many of the entities that were privatized or .de-regulated. during the bull market will be re-nationalized and re-regulated. (A less-likely but possible alternative is that many regulatory agencies will be abolished.)
.Wave (a) of the bear market in social mood will bedevil more than one president.
.The occupation of Iraq by the U.S. will progress from a quagmire to a financial, political and public relations disaster.
.Terrorists will attack the U.S. again, more severely than on 9/11/01, probably within the next 18 months.
. Separatist movements will gain momentum. Many will successfully establish new geopolitical entities.
.Fears about technology will lead to restrictions on its development.
.Politics will become far more polarized, splintered and radical.
.Social Security in its current form will fail.
.The U.S. will threaten and possibly attack more countries. More countries will oppose U.S. interests.
.The Third World War, which began on 9/11/01, will escalate.
.The U.S. will increase restrictions on immigration.

.The U.S. will require internal travel papers.
.Both patriotism and anti-government sentiment will grow into powerful emotional forces.
.Openness and transparency will give way to secrecy. Spies and exclusive social organizations will have increased standing and power.
.The U.S. will accelerate its trend toward socialism. Opposition to that trend will be vigorous.
.Suspicion or hatred of foreigners will increase around the globe.
.Nations will tend away from liberal, representative governments and toward dictatorships.
.The Drug War will turn more violent. Eventually, possession and sale of recreational drugs will be decriminalized.
.Government will ration goods and services in which it is or becomes involved (such as gasoline, vaccines, medical care, electricity, water, food, etc.).
.International travel will be restricted, whether by statute or dangerous conditions.
.The U.S. and state governments will finish their takeover and demolition of the medical industry.
.Third parties will gain political clout and win local elections. Libertarians, greens and others will capture many local offices and probably at least one state government.
.At least one of the two major parties will disappear or re-form.

Other Social Trends

.Social groups, including economic, political, religious, genders and classes, will polarize and splinter
.The birth rate will continue to fall in the U.S. and Europe until the bear market in social mood (as
.Religion will become increasingly popular. Its advocates will become increasingly passionate.
further. I.e., they will polarize both internally and with respect to opposing groups.
indicated by the downtrend in stock prices) ends.
.Religious intolerance will increase.
.Belief in magic will increase.
.Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes.
.Epidemics will increase in number and severity. Malaria will return to the U.S. Eventually, DDT will be re-legalized.
.Films will break new ground in horror, probably with themes that include suicide and torture.
.Environmentalists will become militant and intentionally destructive.
.Disney.s family-fare feature cartoons will fall in popularity, and the studio will stop making them.
.Professional baseball and basketball will suffer difficulties. New record performances by individuals will become rare. No team will have a .dynasty. during the bear market. Leagues will restructure. Attendance and viewership will fall. Salaries will decrease.
.New brutal sports will be introduced and gain popularity.
.Physical fitness (.working out.) will go out of style.
.The U.S. space program will be shut down.
.Conspiracy theories will become more plentiful, and more people will believe them.
.People will rate .the future. as increasingly less promising.
.Race relations will become strained and violent.
.The suicide rate will go up.
.Mob violence will break out more often than it did from 1982 to 2000.
.Mass demonstrations, expressing anger with some social situation, will occur.
.Hemlines will fall, and bright colors will go out of style.
.Music sales will slump, and popular music will become somber and/or angry.
.Hedonism will flourish. Pornography will become more bizarre. These trends will meet with social and political backlash, as mainstream behavior will simultaneously become more conservative.
.Popular self-help books will change focus from wealth and self improvement to surviving hard times and beating adversaries.
.Cults and other escapist communities will be established.
.Food scares, probably including mad cow disease, will hit the U.S.
.Most restaurants will decline in popularity. .Family-style. traditional fare and home cooking will become popular.
.Interest in producing the plays of Shakespeare will wane.
.Anti-gay, racist and xenophobic entities will organize and openly pursue their agendas.
.Areas of cities will become dangerous places in which street gangs .rule. some neighborhoods.
.The number of Broadway shows will fall dramatically.
.Disney will close its NYC theater productions, and Times Square will become X-rated again.
.Well-off people will adopt fashions that conceal rather than accentuate their wealth.
.Gangsters, pirates and other outlaws will become popular folk heroes.
.Entertainment media will feature fewer heroes and more anti-heroes.
.The Olympic Games will be cancelled at least once, if not terminated altogether.
.Organized labor will grow and become more active. The number and severity of strikes will rise.
.Many amusement parks will close.
.The number of coffee shops in the United States will decline substantially.
.Per capita consumption of alcohol and other depressants will increase.
.Public art, such as sculptures and murals, will become ponderous and ugly.
.One or more of the sciences will go through a .paradigm shift..
.Terrible secret activities that we could not even imagine will take place, some to be revealed only years or decades later. (It was revealed decades later that the U.S. government (allegedly for the greater good) conducted syphilis experiments on citizens beginning in 1932, the year that the Supercycle wave (IV) bear market bottomed. It was revealed only last week that from 1939 to 1941, in the final years of the Cycle wave II bear market, Nazi Germany (allegedly for the greater good) systematically killed hospital patients to unburden the state and .cleanse the gene pool..)